HANDICAPPING THE 2009/2010 NETWORK TV SEASON: BEST NEW SHOWS

I have always found the business side of network television to be fascinating, marveling at those who actually believe you can, by sheer force of a personal stamp, create, control and schedule creative genius.  You can't, of course.  Success in network TV, IMO, is a witches brew concocted by Bewitched's Kooky Aunt Clara.  Even with all the right ingredients, you never really know what you are going to get.  Best you can do is go along with existing trends, make educated guesses and hope that the show you okayed a multi-million dollar ad campaign for, is actually the one you should back.  What works, what doesn't, what bombs, what succeeds -- you don't really know until you roll them out.  Which is why the Fall season is so much darn fun. 

So in the best tradition of Johnny Carson's "Karnak the Magnificent", for the rest of this week, I'm am going to lay down my predictions 2009/2010 network television throw-down.

Today, starting out with the positive: BEST NEW SHOW for each network.  And the predicted winners are:

ABC: Modern Family.  Great cast. Great behind the scenes talent.  Terrific slot Wednesday at 9pm.  ABC will rock comedy this year and this will be their signature show.

CBS: The Good Wife. Great cast (always a key element).  Strong franchise.  Great fit with CBS's brand of procedural shows, yet, a slight, new direction (courtroom).  Plus, haven't we all wondered about the wife standing next to the cheating politician?  Perfectly scheduled with absolutely ZERO real competition.

CW: The Vampire Diaries.  Vampires are in.  They're cute and this is created by Kevin Williamson (Dawson's Creek).  Based on a popular book series, this show perfectly suits the CW's brand and the net's "supernatural" Thursday line up.  With little competition for the key demos, it's a winner.

FOX: Glee.   Glee actually premiered last spring and just got a "back 9" order (rest of the season).  It's generally fun, .  The music is okay  And, Jane Lynch, as always, is freaking hilarious in every role she touches.  However, I don't love it - it's mediocre.  The characters in the pilot were bland, the singing not that impressive and the lead character's story not at all compelling, but it is, nonetheless, by far Fox's best "new" show.  Which I think does not bode well for Fox.

NBC: The Jay Leno Show. Seriously.  I'm sure I will get killed in the cool circles for saying this.  And as a writer of scripted one-hours, I should wish death on this unscripted concept - but I don't.  I don't like Jeff Zucker (the guy who runs NBC) but, I admire him for trying a different business model.  And I believe there is a place for this at 10pm.  Monday night is a great example: Castle, CSI MIAMI (why does David Caruso whisper all the time!?) or Jay...?  I might just land and stay on Leno and relax.  It's late.  Let my mind rest.  Jay is funny, easy going, you like him.  And he's cheap (compared to scripted fare).

My opinion is just that.  What's yours?  If you've got one and are itching to get it out, comment it up! 

Be sure to check back for:

THURSDAY'S BLOG: SURE TO FAIL & BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENTS of the 2009/2010 Television Schedule.

FRIDAY'S BLOG: BIGGEST SURPRISES of the 2009/2010 Network Television Schedule.